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Tuley: Week 6 NFL ATS picks
11yDave Tuley
Are the Patriots taking a risk by investing in RBs Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson?
4hMike Reiss
Source: Patriots, RB Stevenson reach $36M deal
6hMike Reiss
Lawrence: Big deal doesn't change expectations
9hMichael DiRocco
Ex-Stanford HC Shaw joins Broncos' front office
11h
Browns DE waived after crashing car into bistro
8h
Kelce: SB ring error 'makes it more exclusive'
1d
Bill approved to lure Chiefs, Royals to Kansas
2d
Bakhtiari wants to play 'another couple of years'
2d
Falcons to add owner Blank, QB Ryan into ROH
2dMarc Raimondi
NFL players speak on the 18-game schedule: What stands in the way of an agreement?
15hBrooke Pryor
'You guys are a QB's best friend': The lessons and bonds of Tight End University
15hStephen Holder
'He's everything people said': Cardinals' Marvin Harrison Jr. is already living up to the hype
15hJosh Weinfuss
Browns liking wide receiver options heading into 2024: 'A lot more explosive'
15hDaniel Oyefusi
Will Alvin Kamara and the Saints resolve contract concerns?
14hKatherine Terrell
Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers will be locked in for any Raiders QB
14hPaul Gutierrez
Lamar Jackson has 'keys to the Ferrari' in Ravens offense
14hJamison Hensley
How Texans' Nico Collins plans to top breakout 2023 season
14hD.J. Bien-Aime
'Don't do that again': What NFL teams tell their players to avoid in the offseason
2dMarc Raimondi
'Got in the air, I fell in love': Inside Brandin Cooks' unique hobby of piloting his own plane
2dTodd Archer
2024 fantasy football position preview: Running back
2dEric Moody
2024 fantasy football position preview: Quarterback
2dTristan H. co*ckcroft
From 'kneecaps' speech to NFC title game: Lions' Decker on 8 wild years in Detroit
3dEric Woodyard
32 first-round picks, 32 first impressions: Early observations of the 2024 class
4dESPN
'He's further along than you probably should be': First impressions of Jayden Daniels in Washington
4dJohn Keim
EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff WriterOct 11, 2013, 06:49 PM
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- Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
LAS VEGAS -- A lot of people like to knock my "dog-or-pass" betting philosophy, so it was great to hear it supported by none other than Hall of Fame coach Don Shula (via Larry King) last Friday night on the "Olbermann" show on ESPN2.
For those who didn't see it: King, the retired talk-show host, was pinch hitting for Keith Olbermann while KO was moonlighting with the MLB playoffs on TBS. King, who worked in Miami before becoming a national figure, told the story of how he was covering a "Monday Night Football" game between the Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 3, 1973. A friend of his had bet $20,000 on the Dolphins minus-5 and they took a 30-3 halftime lead.
Terry Bradshaw rallied the Steelers, and the score was 30-24 in the closing minutes, so King's friend was happy as the Dolphins were still covering the 5-point spread. But then, with just over a minute left, instead of punting from deep in their own territory, the Dolphins took an intentional safety with quarterback Bob Griese taking an intentional safety.
"The Dolphins win 30-26," King said. "My friend laid 5. They won by 4. He lost $20,000.
"Later, I'm flying on a plane with Don Shula going to another game and I'm talking about betting. Don, the great coach, never bet. And I told him what happened with my friend. So Don said to me, 'Now wait a minute. He bet on the Dolphins. We're all jumping up and down. We won, and he lost. That doesn't make any sense.' He said, 'If I were betting' -- and he's not a betting man -- 'I would only bet football if I loved the underdog. If you love the underdog, then you're getting points. But to lay points is insane.'"
That's a big part of the reason I stick with underdogs. You know their goal (to win the game or to get back in it) works in concert with yours. Meanwhile, the favorite's main goal is getting a win, and a one-point victory counts the same as any other. Sure, there are times we see favorites tack on one last score that just so happens to cover the spread. People certainly joke that the coach did it for the alumni in college or their fans in the pros (and I'm not naïve enough to say that that never happens). However, usually the main incentive is to just ensure the victory. But if ensuring that victory means playing prevent defense and letting the opposition get in the back door or taking an intentional safety, the favorite isn't working in your best interest.
OK, so it hasn't been working so well for yours truly so far this season, but I know that it's the right approach over the long term -- and who's going to debate Don Shula on this?
I had another subpar week last week at 3-5. But at one point early in the third quarters of the Sunday afternoon games, it looked like the Broncos were going to pull away and blow out the Cowboys and the Cardinals were struggling with the Panthers. I was 1-4 at that point and starting to fear that I might be 1-6 with just one game to go. So, considering that, 3-5 doesn't seem so bad. Hopefully the turnaround starts this week.
Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially since they mostly have you pick games straight-up and the games are pretty closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Good luck.